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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 82

Detroit Lions 6 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(9:55) 6-S.Martin punts 53 yards to LV 29, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 89-A.Cooper to LV 41 for 12 yards (50-T.Lewis). PENALTY on DET-87-B.Pettigrew, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at LV 41.

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +1.11 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 82, worth -4.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.93 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 40, worth -1.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP