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OAK Away

Oakland Raiders

HC Jack Del Rio
@
DET Home

Detroit Lions

HC Jim Caldwell
Sunday 2015-11-22 · 13:00 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread -2.0 O/U 50.0

Win Probability

OAK
63.3%
DET
36.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV offense: +0.074 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • DET offense: -0.104 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • QB edge to LV: Matthew Stafford (DET) -0.053 vs Derek Carr (LV) +0.148 EPA/dropback
  • DET defense: +0.092 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

OAK 25
–
DET 21
Projected margin: OAK by 4 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

OAK

Neiron Ball LB Out Knee
Lee Smith TE Doubtful Wrist
Rodney Hudson C Questionable Ankle
D.J. Hayden CB Probable Ankle
Taylor Mays S Probable Ankle
Charles Woodson S Probable Shoulder

DET

Gabe Wright DT Out Ankle
Don Carey S Questionable Back
Nevin Lawson CB Questionable Concussion
Ezekiel Ansah DE Probable Toe
Joique Bell RB Probable Shoulder
Jason Jones DE Probable Not Injury Related
Sam Martin P Probable Back
Glover Quin S Probable Ankle
Calvin Johnson WR Probable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

OAK 13
–
DET 18

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:58 FG DET (7:58) 5-M.Prater 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. OAK 0 – DET 3
  • Q1 00:36 FG DET (:36) 5-M.Prater 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. OAK 0 – DET 6
  • Q2 00:07 FG DET (:07) 5-M.Prater 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. OAK 0 – DET 9
  • Q3 10:28 TD LV (10:28) 28-L.Murray right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 6 – DET 9
  • Q3 04:00 FG LV (4:00) 11-S.Janikowski 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. OAK 10 – DET 9
  • Q3 00:20 FG LV (:20) 11-S.Janikowski 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. OAK 13 – DET 9
  • Q4 11:08 TD DET (11:08) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 13 – DET 15
  • Q4 07:44 SAF DET (7:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 81-M.Rivera to LV 13 for 9 yards (28-Q.Diggs). PENALTY on LV-72-D.Penn, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced in End Zone, SAFETY - No Play. OAK 13 – DET 18

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 11 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 96%

    (7:58) 5-M.Prater 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 2 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (6:09) 7-M.King punts 40 yards to DET 17, Center-59-J.Condo. 15-G.Tate to DET 25 for 8 yards (31-N.Thorpe).

  • Q1 DET 4th & 11 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 88%

    (:36) 5-M.Prater 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 9 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (11:22) 7-M.King FUMBLES (Aborted) at LV 27, and recovers at LV 28. 7-M.King punts 47 yards to DET 11. 15-G.Tate to DET 11 for no gain (18-A.Holmes).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 3 at the 82
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (9:55) 6-S.Martin punts 53 yards to LV 29, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 89-A.Cooper to LV 41 for 12 yards (50-T.Lewis). PENALTY on DET-87-B.Pettigrew, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at LV 41.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 3 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 36%

    (8:21) 7-M.King punts 32 yards to DET 15, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 16-L.Moore.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 1 at the 76
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.33 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (6:55) 6-S.Martin punts 50 yards to LV 26, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 89-A.Cooper to LV 26 for no gain (10-C.Fuller).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 13 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 49%

    (2:51) 7-M.King punts 32 yards to DET 10, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-42-L.Asante.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 18 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 71%

    (:07) 5-M.Prater 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 13 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (7:01) 6-S.Martin punts 30 yards to LV 43, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-25-T.Riddick. PENALTY on DET-10-C.Fuller, Player Out of Bounds on Punt, 5 yards, enforced at LV 43.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 6 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 77%

    (4:00) 11-S.Janikowski 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (2:31) 6-S.Martin punts 48 yards to LV 27, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 89-A.Cooper to LV 27 for no gain (50-T.Lewis).

  • Q3 LV 4th & 11 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 59%

    (:20) 11-S.Janikowski 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 9 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (9:16) 7-M.King punts 66 yards to DET 12, Center-59-J.Condo. 15-G.Tate to DET 26 for 14 yards (57-R.Armstrong).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 5 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (8:12) 6-S.Martin punts 57 yards to LV 12, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 89-A.Cooper to LV 16 for 4 yards (10-C.Fuller). PENALTY on LV-31-N.Thorpe, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 8 yards, enforced at LV 16.