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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 76

Detroit Lions 6 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(6:55) 6-S.Martin punts 50 yards to LV 26, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 89-A.Cooper to LV 26 for no gain (10-C.Fuller).

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.45 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 76, worth -4.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.54 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 34, worth -1.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.33 EP