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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 11 at the 38

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Detroit Lions 9

What Actually Happened

(:20) 11-S.Janikowski 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.04 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 38, worth -2.13 EP
KICK -0.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 47, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model