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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 78

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – Detroit Lions 16

What Actually Happened

(9:16) 7-M.King punts 66 yards to DET 12, Center-59-J.Condo. 15-G.Tate to DET 26 for 14 yards (57-R.Armstrong).

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.11 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 78, worth -4.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 35, worth -1.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model