Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 69

Detroit Lions 16 – Las Vegas Raiders 13

What Actually Happened

(8:12) 6-S.Martin punts 57 yards to LV 12, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 89-A.Cooper to LV 16 for 4 yards (10-C.Fuller). PENALTY on LV-31-N.Thorpe, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 8 yards, enforced at LV 16.

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.72 EP
56% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 69, worth -3.65 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model