4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 57

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(6:09) 7-M.King punts 40 yards to DET 17, Center-59-J.Condo. 15-G.Tate to DET 25 for 8 yards (31-N.Thorpe).

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.90 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 57, worth -3.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 17, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP