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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 11 at the 73

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(:16) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 48 yards to LA 25, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-T.Austin to LA 28 for 3 yards (50-A.McClellan).

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.04 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 73, worth -4.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 31, worth -1.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model