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St. Louis Rams

HC Jeff Fisher
@
BAL Home

Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2015-11-22 · 13:00 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

STL
32.8%
BAL
67.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: -0.169 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • Case Keenum (LA): -0.188 EPA/dropback in prior starts (LA starting Case Keenum in place of Nick Foles)
  • BAL defense: +0.095 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • LA defense: -0.097 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • BAL offense: +0.034 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

STL 18
–
BAL 22
Projected margin: BAL by 4 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

STL

Rob Havenstein T Doubtful Calf
Chris Long DE Questionable Knee
Justice Cunningham TE Questionable Finger
Robert Quinn DE Questionable Hip
Tim Barnes C Probable Concussion

BAL

Nick Boyle TE Doubtful Foot
Kelechi Osemele G Questionable Knee
Chris Canty DE Probable Not Injury Related
Elvis Dumervil LB Probable Knee
Daryl Smith LB Probable Not Injury Related

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

STL 13
–
BAL 16

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:10 TD LA (2:10) No. 65 - Demetrius Rhaney (LA) reports as eligible. 30-T.Gurley right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. STL 6 – BAL 0
  • Q2 00:02 FG BAL (:02) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. STL 7 – BAL 3
  • Q3 06:25 TD LA (6:25) 17-C.Keenum pass deep left to 88-L.Kendricks for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. STL 13 – BAL 3
  • Q4 11:16 TD BAL (11:16) 5-J.Flacco pass short left to 11-K.Aiken for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. STL 13 – BAL 9
  • Q4 05:15 FG BAL (5:15) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. STL 13 – BAL 13
  • Q4 00:03 FG BAL (:03) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. STL 13 – BAL 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 6 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (12:03) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 58 yards to BAL 2, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-38-C.Davis.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 6 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (8:21) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 56 yards to LA 5, Center-46-M.Cox. 19-W.Welker ran ob at LA 15 for 10 yards (54-Z.Orr).

  • Q1 LA 4th & 13 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (5:44) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 37 yards to BAL 40, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-31-M.Alexander.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 2 at the 33
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 62%

    (3:50) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 11 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (:16) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 48 yards to LA 25, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-T.Austin to LA 28 for 3 yards (50-A.McClellan).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 10 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 22%

    (11:13) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 30 yards to BAL 19, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-34-C.Reynolds.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 4 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (10:24) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 50 yards to LA 25, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-T.Austin to LA 28 for 3 yards (50-A.McClellan). Penalty on BAL-28-B.Trawick, Ineligible Downfield Kick, declined. PENALTY on BAL-31-T.Brooks, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at LA 28.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 3 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 20%

    (8:15) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 39 yards to BAL 11, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 21-L.Webb. PENALTY on LA-53-D.Bates, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 11.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 9 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 40%

    (5:35) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Touchback.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (4:04) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 45 yards to LA 26, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-T.Austin MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by BAL-57-C.Mosley at LA 31. 57-C.Mosley to LA 31 for no gain (38-C.Davis).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 3 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 97%

    (:02) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 11 at the 33
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 62%

    (11:15) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 44-K.Juszczyk to LA 28 for 5 yards (55-J.Laurinaitis).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 6 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (10:13) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 63 yards to BAL 5, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 81-K.Clay to BAL 12 for 7 yards (53-D.Bates).

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 10 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (9:44) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 48 yards to LA 40, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 2 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (4:25) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 45 yards to LA 18, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 11-T.Austin. PENALTY on LA-11-T.Austin, Invalid Fair Catch Signal, 5 yards, enforced at LA 18.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 11 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:36) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 57 yards to BAL 18, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 81-K.Clay to BAL 28 for 10 yards (46-C.Harkey). Penalty on BAL-28-B.Trawick, Offensive Holding, declined. Penalty on BAL-33-W.Hill, Unnecessary Roughness, declined. PENALTY on BAL-41-A.Levine, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 20.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 10 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (:01) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 44 yards to LA 34, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-T.Austin to LA 30 for -4 yards (41-A.Levine).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 14 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (9:08) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 42 yards to BAL 26, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 81-K.Clay to BAL 22 for -4 yards (31-M.Alexander).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 98%

    (5:15) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 5 at the 34 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 60%

    (1:46) (Field Goal formation) 4-G.Zuerlein 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 5 at the 33 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 62%

    (1:18) 9-J.Tucker 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.