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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 49

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(11:13) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 30 yards to BAL 19, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-34-C.Reynolds.

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.29 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP
KICK -1.80 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model