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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 9 at the 41

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(5:35) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.74 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 41, worth -2.04 EP
KICK -0.75 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 12, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model