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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 7

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(:02) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.49 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +3.21 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 7, worth +0.07 EP
KICK +2.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model