4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 88

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(9:44) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 48 yards to LA 40, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.

The Three Options

GO -3.00 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.71 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 88, worth -5.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 46, worth -2.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model