Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 11 at the 75

Los Angeles Rams 13 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(1:36) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 57 yards to BAL 18, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 81-K.Clay to BAL 28 for 10 yards (46-C.Harkey). Penalty on BAL-28-B.Trawick, Offensive Holding, declined. Penalty on BAL-33-W.Hill, Unnecessary Roughness, declined. PENALTY on BAL-41-A.Levine, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 20.

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.85 EP
68% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 75, worth -4.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model