Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 78

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Los Angeles Rams 13

(:01) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 44 yards to LA 34, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-T.Austin to LA 30 for -4 yards (41-A.Levine).

The Three Options

GO -2.46 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.27 EP
65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 78, worth -4.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model