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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 14 at the 68

Los Angeles Rams 13 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(9:08) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 42 yards to BAL 26, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 81-K.Clay to BAL 22 for -4 yards (31-M.Alexander).

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.47 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 68, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 26, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model