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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 2

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Los Angeles Rams 13

What Actually Happened

(5:15) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +3.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.14 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 2, worth +0.20 EP
KICK +2.14 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.75 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP