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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 34

Los Angeles Rams 13 – Baltimore Ravens 13

What Actually Happened

(1:46) (Field Goal formation) 4-G.Zuerlein 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +1.45 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 34, worth -1.56 EP
KICK +0.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 44, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT -0.80 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model