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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 33

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(3:50) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +4.05 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 33, worth -1.23 EP
KICK +0.78 EP
What Happened
  • 62% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 43, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP