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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 93

Tennessee Titans 6 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(1:38) 6-B.Kern punts 56 yards to JAX 37, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 13-R.Greene ran ob at 50 for 13 yards.

The Three Options

GO -3.29 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.48 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 93, worth -5.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

PUNT -2.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 51, worth -2.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model