4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
TEN Away

Tennessee Titans

HC Ken Whisenhunt
@
JAX Home

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Gus Bradley
Thursday 2015-11-19 · 20:25 EverBank Field, Jacksonville US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.0 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

TEN
37.4%
JAX
62.6%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TEN offense: -0.152 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • JAX defense: +0.039 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • Blake Bortles (JAX): -0.002 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

TEN 20
–
JAX 25
Projected margin: JAX by 5 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

TEN

Al Woods DT Out Ankle
Blidi Wreh-Wilson CB Out Hamstring
Kendall Wright WR Out Knee
Derrick Morgan LB Questionable Shoulder
Perrish Cox CB Probable Hamstring
Sammie Lee Hill DT Probable Knee
Chance Warmack G Probable Ankle

JAX

Sen'Derrick Marks DT Out Elbow
James Sample S Out Shoulder
Nic Jacobs TE Doubtful Hamstring
Bernard Pierce RB Doubtful Calf
Michael Bennett DT Questionable Hamstring
Dan Skuta LB Questionable Groin
Bryan Walters WR Questionable Concussion
T.J. Yeldon RB Questionable Foot
Chris Clemons DE Probable Not Injury Related
Toby Gerhart RB Probable Groin
Allen Hurns WR Probable Foot
Marqise Lee WR Probable Hamstring
Roy Miller DT Probable Knee
Julius Thomas TE Probable Abdomen

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 13
–
JAX 19

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:11 FG TEN (9:11) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 3 – JAX 0
  • Q2 14:53 FG JAX (14:53) 2-J.Myers 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger. TEN 3 – JAX 3
  • Q2 11:03 FG TEN (11:03) 4-R.Succop 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 6 – JAX 3
  • Q2 00:35 FG JAX (:35) 2-J.Myers 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger. TEN 6 – JAX 6
  • Q3 08:13 FG JAX (8:13) 2-J.Myers 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger. TEN 6 – JAX 9
  • Q3 05:32 TD TEN (5:32) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota left end for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 12 – JAX 9
  • Q4 03:34 TD JAX (3:34) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 80-J.Thomas for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 13 – JAX 15
  • Q4 02:21 FG JAX (2:21) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger. TEN 13 – JAX 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 3 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 76%

    (9:11) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (8:14) (Punt formation) 19-B.Anger punts 52 yards to TEN 22, Center-46-C.Tinker. 22-D.McCluster to TEN 28 for 6 yards (16-D.Robinson).

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 9 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (5:28) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 45 yards to JAX 14, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 4 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 95%

    (14:53) 2-J.Myers 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 9 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 70%

    (11:03) 4-R.Succop 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 9 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (7:40) 6-B.Kern punts 39 yards to JAX 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 81-B.Walters. PENALTY on TEN-37-C.Riggs, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at JAX 15.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 13 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 47%

    (3:08) 19-B.Anger punts 35 yards to TEN 6, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 22-D.McCluster.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 9 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:38) 6-B.Kern punts 56 yards to JAX 37, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 13-R.Greene ran ob at 50 for 13 yards.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 12 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 94%

    (:35) 2-J.Myers 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%

    (8:13) 2-J.Myers 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 5 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (3:23) 19-B.Anger punts 46 yards to TEN 17, Center-46-C.Tinker. 83-H.Douglas to TEN 16 for -1 yards (52-H.Pullard). PENALTY on TEN-89-P.Supernaw, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at TEN 16.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 2 at the 35
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 63%

    (13:02) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 17 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (7:36) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 42 yards to JAX 39, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 14 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (6:04) (Punt formation) 19-B.Anger punts 59 yards to TEN 6, Center-46-C.Tinker. 83-H.Douglas to TEN 15 for 9 yards (52-H.Pullard).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 1 at the 76 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (3:49) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 44 yards to JAX 32, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 13-R.Greene to TEN 5 for 63 yards (39-D.Stafford).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 19 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 90%

    (2:21) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.