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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 12 at the 14

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Tennessee Titans 6

What Actually Happened

(:35) 2-J.Myers 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.48 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.24 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 14, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +2.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.55 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model