4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 2

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Tennessee Titans 6

What Actually Happened

(8:13) 2-J.Myers 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +3.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.25 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 2, worth +0.54 EP
KICK +2.26 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.60 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP