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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 29

Tennessee Titans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(9:11) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.15 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 29, worth -1.69 EP
KICK +0.85 EP
What Happened
  • 76% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 39, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model