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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 35

Tennessee Titans 13 – Jacksonville Jaguars 9

What Actually Happened

(13:02) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.44 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 35, worth -1.86 EP
KICK +0.28 EP
What Happened
  • 63% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 45, worth -2.39 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP