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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 14 at the 65

Jacksonville Jaguars 9 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(6:04) (Punt formation) 19-B.Anger punts 59 yards to TEN 6, Center-46-C.Tinker. 83-H.Douglas to TEN 15 for 9 yards (52-H.Pullard).

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.19 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 65, worth -3.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 23, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model