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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 13

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(14:53) 2-J.Myers 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +2.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.44 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 13, worth +0.05 EP
KICK +2.28 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.45 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 23, worth -0.60 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model