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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 73

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(2:48) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 46 yards to CLE 27, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-T.Benjamin to CLE 39 for 12 yards (59-A.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.13 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 73, worth -4.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.62 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 31, worth -1.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model