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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
@
CLE Home

Cleveland Browns

HC Mike Pettine
Monday 2015-11-30 · 20:30 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US ☀️ Clear Spread 6.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

BAL
51.0%
CLE
49.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE defense: +0.135 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • CLE offense: -0.082 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • CLE on 7 more days rest than BAL
  • BAL offense: -0.026 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • Matt Schaub (BAL): +0.113 EPA/dropback in prior starts (BAL starting Matt Schaub in place of Joe Flacco)

Predicted Final Score

BAL 23
–
CLE 22
Projected margin: BAL by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

BAL

Marlon Brown WR Doubtful Back
Chase Ford TE Doubtful Shoulder
Eugene Monroe T Doubtful Shoulder
Kelechi Osemele G Doubtful Knee
Shareece Wright CB Questionable Back
Nick Boyle TE Probable Foot

CLE

Taylor Gabriel WR Out Concussion
Joe Haden CB Out Concussion
Andrew Hawkins WR Out Concussion
Randy Starks DE Out Knee
Joel Bitonio G Questionable Ankle
Nate Orchard LB Questionable Groin
Johnny Manziel QB Probable right Elbow
Josh McCown QB Probable Ribs
Donte Whitner S Probable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 33
–
CLE 27

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:12 TD BAL (10:12) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 61 yards to BAL 18, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 81-K.Clay for 82 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 6 – CLE 0
  • Q1 04:26 FG BAL (4:26) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 10 – CLE 0
  • Q2 11:30 FG CLE (11:30) (Field Goal formation) 6-T.Coons 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee. BAL 10 – CLE 3
  • Q2 10:05 TD BAL (10:05) 8-M.Schaub pass short middle to 37-J.Allen for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 16 – CLE 3
  • Q2 04:46 TD CLE (4:46) 13-J.McCown pass short left to 15-M.Moore for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Out of a QB scramble BAL 17 – CLE 9
  • Q2 00:05 FG CLE (:05) (Field Goal formation) 6-T.Coons 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee. BAL 17 – CLE 13
  • Q3 12:27 TD CLE (12:27) (Shotgun) 8-M.Schaub pass short left intended for 11-K.Aiken INTERCEPTED by 56-K.Dansby at CLE 48. 56-K.Dansby for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 17 – CLE 19
  • Q3 05:37 TD BAL (5:37) 8-M.Schaub pass short left to 11-K.Aiken for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 23 – CLE 20
  • Q4 09:09 FG BAL (9:09) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 27 – CLE 20
  • Q4 01:55 TD CLE (1:55) (Shotgun) 7-A.Davis pass deep middle to 11-T.Benjamin for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 27 – CLE 26
  • Q4 00:03 TD BAL (:03) 6-T.Coons 51 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-B.Urban), Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee, RECOVERED by BAL-33-W.Hill at BAL 36. 33-W.Hill for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 33 – CLE 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (12:37) 4-S.Koch punts 44 yards to CLE 11, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 12 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (10:12) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 61 yards to BAL 18, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 81-K.Clay for 82 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 6 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (7:44) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 47 yards to BAL 15, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 81-K.Clay to BAL 30 for 15 yards (24-J.Bademosi; 30-I.Campbell).

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 6 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 70%

    (4:26) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 1 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 55%

    (14:21) (Shotgun) 13-J.McCown pass short middle to 82-G.Barnidge to BAL 20 for 17 yards (23-K.Lewis).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 3 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 94%

    (11:30) (Field Goal formation) 6-T.Coons 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 4 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (2:48) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 46 yards to CLE 27, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-T.Benjamin to CLE 39 for 12 yards (59-A.Brown).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

    (:05) (Field Goal formation) 6-T.Coons 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (13:23) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 36 yards to BAL 36, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 2 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 63%

    (7:01) 8-M.Schaub pass short right to 44-K.Juszczyk to CLE 19 for 15 yards (53-C.Robertson).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 10 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 47%

    (2:20) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 39 yards to BAL 1, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 1 at the 76
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (14:03) 8-M.Schaub up the middle to BAL 26 for 2 yards (92-D.Bryant).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 10 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 92%

    (9:09) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (8:24) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 52 yards to BAL 27, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 81-K.Clay to BAL 37 for 10 yards (58-C.Kirksey). PENALTY on BAL-33-W.Hill, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 27.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 17 at the 71 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (4:27) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 42 yards to CLE 29, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 11-T.Benjamin.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 5 at the 66 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (2:06) (Shotgun) 7-A.Davis pass short right to 83-B.Hartline to CLE 42 for 8 yards (35-S.Wright).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 6 at the 76 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (1:28) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 39 yards to CLE 37, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 18 at the 71 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (1:06) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 48 yards to BAL 23, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 81-K.Clay to BAL 38 for 15 yards (24-J.Bademosi).