4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 72

Cleveland Browns 13 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(13:23) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 36 yards to BAL 36, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.68 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 72, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 30, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP