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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 34

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Cleveland Browns 20

What Actually Happened

(7:01) 8-M.Schaub pass short right to 44-K.Juszczyk to CLE 19 for 15 yards (53-C.Robertson).

The Three Options

GO +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.86 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 34, worth -1.69 EP
KICK +0.42 EP
  • 63% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 44, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model