4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 76

Baltimore Ravens 24 – Cleveland Browns 20

What Actually Happened

(14:03) 8-M.Schaub up the middle to BAL 26 for 2 yards (92-D.Bryant).

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.47 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 76, worth -4.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.83 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 34, worth -1.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model