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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 17

Baltimore Ravens 24 – Cleveland Browns 20

What Actually Happened

(9:09) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.29 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 17, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 27, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model