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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 17 at the 71

Baltimore Ravens 27 – Cleveland Browns 20

What Actually Happened

(4:27) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 42 yards to CLE 29, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 11-T.Benjamin.

The Three Options

GO -2.23 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +1.89 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 71, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 29, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model