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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 66

Cleveland Browns 20 – Baltimore Ravens 27

What Actually Happened

(2:06) (Shotgun) 7-A.Davis pass short right to 83-B.Hartline to CLE 42 for 8 yards (35-S.Wright).

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.45 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 66, worth -2.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 24, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model