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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 12 at the 79

Cleveland Browns 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(10:12) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 61 yards to BAL 18, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 81-K.Clay for 82 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -2.42 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.91 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 79, worth -4.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 36, worth -1.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model