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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 37

Cleveland Browns 0 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(14:21) (Shotgun) 13-J.McCown pass short middle to 82-G.Barnidge to BAL 20 for 17 yards (23-K.Lewis).

The Three Options

GO +2.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.75 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 37, worth -1.31 EP
KICK +0.60 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.84 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 46, worth -2.14 EP
PUNT +0.63 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model