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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 67

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(14:56) 2-D.Colquitt punts 39 yards to BUF 28, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-49-D.Sorensen.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.62 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 67, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 25, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP