4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
BUF Away

Buffalo Bills

HC Rex Ryan
@
KC Home

Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2015-11-29 · 13:00 Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US ☀️ Clear Spread 4.5 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

BUF
40.1%
KC
59.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.039 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • KC defense: -0.056 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • Tyrod Taylor (BUF): +0.108 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

BUF 21
–
KC 25
Projected margin: KC by 4 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

BUF

Marcus Easley WR Out Concussion
John Miller G Out Ankle
Mario Williams DE Out Foot
Kyle Williams DT Out Knee
Marcell Dareus DT Probable Knee
Bacarri Rambo S Probable Shoulder
Tyrod Taylor QB Probable right Shoulder

KC

Allen Bailey DE Out Calf
Dee Ford LB Out Back
De'Anthony Thomas WR Out Concussion
Ben Grubbs G Out Neck
Charcandrick West RB Questionable Hamstring
Travis Kelce TE Questionable Groin
Tamba Hali LB Probable Knee
Chris Conley WR Probable Hand
Mike Devito DE Probable Shoulder
Jamell Fleming CB Probable Hamstring
Brian Parker TE Probable Ankle
Ramik Wilson LB Probable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 22
–
KC 30

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:57 FG BUF (11:57) 2-D.Carpenter 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. BUF 3 – KC 0
  • Q1 01:10 TD BUF (1:10) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep left to 14-S.Watkins for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 9 – KC 0
  • Q2 07:01 TD KC (7:01) 32-S.Ware up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC-71-J.Allen was injured during the play. BUF 10 – KC 6
  • Q2 02:35 TD BUF (2:35) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep left to 14-S.Watkins for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 16 – KC 7
  • Q2 01:54 TD KC (1:54) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep right to 19-J.Maclin for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 16 – KC 13
  • Q3 11:21 TD KC (11:21) 11-A.Smith pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 16 – KC 20
  • Q3 08:12 FG KC (8:12) 5-C.Santos 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. BUF 16 – KC 24
  • Q3 03:15 TD BUF (3:15) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short right to 25-L.McCoy for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 22 – KC 24
  • Q4 13:05 FG KC (13:05) 5-C.Santos 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. BUF 22 – KC 27
  • Q4 03:34 FG KC (3:34) 5-C.Santos 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. BUF 22 – KC 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 4 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 96%

    (11:57) 2-D.Carpenter 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 4 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (10:20) 2-D.Colquitt punts 41 yards to BUF 34, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-39-H.Abdullah.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (5:28) 2-D.Colquitt punts 37 yards to BUF 30, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-M.Thigpen to BUF 35 for 5 yards (42-A.Sherman).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (14:56) 2-D.Colquitt punts 39 yards to BUF 28, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-49-D.Sorensen.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 10 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 38%

    (10:15) 6-C.Schmidt punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Touchback.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 10 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (1:27) 6-C.Schmidt punts 44 yards to KC 29, Center-65-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 2 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 59%

    (:04) 5-C.Santos 54 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Crossbar, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 7 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 71%

    (8:12) 5-C.Santos 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 7 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 89%

    (13:05) 5-C.Santos 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 9 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 43%

    (10:08) 6-C.Schmidt punts 31 yards to KC 11, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 85-F.Hammond.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 17 at the 19 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 90%

    (3:34) 5-C.Santos 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 9 at the 79 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (2:16) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor scrambles left end to BUF 18 for -3 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at BUF 20. 5-T.Taylor to BUF 29 for 9 yards (54-D.Moses). FUMBLES (54-D.Moses), ball out of bounds at BUF 29. Buffalo challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #3 at 02:07.)