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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 44

Buffalo Bills 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(10:15) 6-C.Schmidt punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.47 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 44, worth -2.44 EP
KICK -1.10 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model