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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 9

Buffalo Bills 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(11:57) 2-D.Carpenter 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +2.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.64 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 9, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP