4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 31

Kansas City Chiefs 21 – Buffalo Bills 16

What Actually Happened

(8:12) 5-C.Santos 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.62 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 31, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.68 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 41, worth -1.61 EP
PUNT +0.49 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model