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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 42

Buffalo Bills 22 – Kansas City Chiefs 27

What Actually Happened

(10:08) 6-C.Schmidt punts 31 yards to KC 11, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 85-F.Hammond.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.48 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 42, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.73 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model