Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 75

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Buffalo Bills 3

(10:20) 2-D.Colquitt punts 41 yards to BUF 34, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-39-H.Abdullah.

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP

50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.68 EP
50% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 75, worth -4.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model