Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 79

Buffalo Bills 22 – Kansas City Chiefs 30

What Actually Happened

(2:16) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor scrambles left end to BUF 18 for -3 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at BUF 20. 5-T.Taylor to BUF 29 for 9 yards (54-D.Moses). FUMBLES (54-D.Moses), ball out of bounds at BUF 29. Buffalo challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #3 at 02:07.)

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP

What Happened

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.78 EP
64% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 79, worth -1.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model