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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 7

Carolina Panthers 20 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(:03) (Field Goal formation) 9-G.Gano 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +2.38 EP
  • 34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.92 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 7, worth +0.05 EP
KICK +2.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.02 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model