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CAR Away

Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
@
DAL Home

Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
Thursday 2015-11-26 · 16:30 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread -1.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

CAR
56.7%
DAL
43.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CAR offense: +0.079 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • CAR defense: -0.143 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • DAL defense: +0.050 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Tony Romo (DAL): +0.110 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

CAR 25
–
DAL 23
Projected margin: CAR by 2 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

CAR

Charles Tillman CB Doubtful Knee
Corey Brown WR Questionable Shoulder
Dwan Edwards DT Probable Ankle
Ted Ginn WR Probable Knee
J.J. Jansen LS Probable Head
Andrew Norwell G Probable Hamstring

DAL

Morris Claiborne CB Out Hamstring
Ryan Russell DE Out Abdomen
Dez Bryant WR Probable Foot
Brice Butler WR Probable Hamstring
Brandon Carr CB Probable Shoulder
Barry Church S Probable Ankle
Nick Hayden DT Probable Ankle
Jeff Heath S Probable Shoulder
Anthony Hitchens LB Probable Ankle
Byron Jones CB Probable Ankle
Demarcus Lawrence DE Probable Back
Rolando McClain LB Probable Foot
Darren McFadden RB Probable Groin
Tony Romo QB Probable Back
Kyle Wilber LB Probable Toe

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 33
–
DAL 14

Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 14:15 TD CAR (14:15) (Shotgun) 9-T.Romo pass short middle intended for 82-J.Witten INTERCEPTED by 20-K.Coleman at DAL 36. 20-K.Coleman for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – DAL 0
  • Q1 08:14 FG CAR (8:14) (Field Goal formation) 9-G.Gano 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman. CAR 10 – DAL 0
  • Q1 01:25 FG DAL (1:25) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. CAR 10 – DAL 3
  • Q2 03:32 FG CAR (3:32) (Field Goal formation) 9-G.Gano 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman. CAR 13 – DAL 3
  • Q2 02:47 TD CAR (2:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-T.Romo pass short right intended for 83-T.Williams INTERCEPTED by 59-L.Kuechly at DAL 32. 59-L.Kuechly for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 19 – DAL 3
  • Q2 00:03 FG CAR (:03) (Field Goal formation) 9-G.Gano 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman. CAR 23 – DAL 3
  • Q3 07:53 FG DAL (7:53) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. CAR 23 – DAL 6
  • Q3 00:25 TD CAR (:25) 1-C.Newton up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 29 – DAL 6
  • Q4 10:27 FG CAR (10:27) (Field Goal formation) 9-G.Gano 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman. CAR 33 – DAL 6
  • Q4 04:27 TD DAL (4:27) (Shotgun) 16-M.Cassel pass short right to 11-C.Beasley for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 33 – DAL 12

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (12:35) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 50 yards to CAR 22, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 6 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 75%

    (8:14) (Field Goal formation) 9-G.Gano 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%

    (1:25) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 3 at the 38
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 59%

    (11:48) (Punt formation) 8-B.Nortman punts 22 yards to DAL 16, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 14 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (9:25) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 50 yards to CAR 27, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 29-D.Marlowe to CAR 27 for no gain (27-J.Wilcox).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 6 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 85%

    (3:32) (Field Goal formation) 9-G.Gano 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%

    (:03) (Field Goal formation) 9-G.Gano 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 5 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 77%

    (7:53) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 13 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (14:20) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 41 yards to CAR 42, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 6 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 73%

    (10:27) (Field Goal formation) 9-G.Gano 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 10 at the 25 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 85%

    (2:00) (Field Goal formation) 9-G.Gano 43 yard field goal is BLOCKED (98-T.Crawford), Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman, RECOVERED by DAL-50-S.Lee at DAL 20. 50-S.Lee to CAR 45 for 35 yards (92-D.Edwards).