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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 72

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(12:35) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 50 yards to CAR 22, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.95 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP