Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 13 at the 83

Dallas Cowboys 6 – Carolina Panthers 30

(14:20) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 41 yards to CAR 42, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.79 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.58 EP
70% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 83, worth -4.67 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model