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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 32

Carolina Panthers 30 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(10:27) (Field Goal formation) 9-G.Gano 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.08 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 32, worth -1.69 EP
KICK +0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 42, worth -2.23 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model